Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 13?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 97¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 97.2¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,648

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No3 traders

Total Value$40.25

Total Shares875

Combined PnL+$24.67

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Yesavg 78.3¢	$4.4K	$5.5K	+$1.1K	73% 3689-1399 (5088)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 95.3¢	$1.9K	$703.84	+$25.61	52% 9084-8296 (17380)
Rex416	Yesavg 82.8¢	$547.84	$630.22	+$82.38	56% 2864-2284 (5148)
32 328.400.fund	Yesavg 78.9¢	$212.5	$256.31	+$43.81	58% 43-31 (74)
SE SeniorLaghetto	Yesavg 97¢	$236.58	$233.02	+$2.55	68% 430-201 (631)
G.Hchen<$100	Yesavg 59.2¢	$49.74	$80.22	+$30.66	57% 411-313 (724)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 2.6¢	$8.45	$18.84	+$10.39	30% 35522-84044 (119566)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Noavg 7.7¢	$4.93	$16.81	+$11.88	49% 22892-23745 (46637)
MK MKSafeCTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$2.1	$4.6	+$2.4	28% 11-29 (40)

Parz1vaI

Yes

Invested

$4,389.45

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

73%

3689-1399 (5088)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$1,855.87

Value

$703.84

PnL

+$25.61

Record

52%

9084-8296 (17380)

Rex416

Yes

Invested

$547.84

Value

$630.22

PnL

+$82.38

Record

56%

2864-2284 (5148)

328.400.fund

Yes

Invested

$212.5

Value

$256.31

PnL

+$43.81

Record

58%

43-31 (74)

SeniorLaghetto

Yes

Invested

$236.58

Value

$233.02

PnL

+$2.55

Record

68%

430-201 (631)

G.Hchen<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.74

Value

$80.22

PnL

+$30.66

Record

57%

411-313 (724)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$8.45

Value

$18.84

PnL

+$10.39

Record

30%

35522-84044 (119566)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$16.81

PnL

+$11.88

Record

49%

22892-23745 (46637)

MKSafeCTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$2.4

Record

28%

11-29 (40)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.