Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 90¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$164.71

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 90¢

+52% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares12,417

Combined PnL+$1.8K

No8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares9,704

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

60h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 63% · 19

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Yesavg 57.3¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$477.81	73% 3689-1399 (5088)
32 328.400.fund	Yesavg 56.5¢	$1.9K	$2.7K	+$832.16	58% 43-31 (74)
smellyEllie	Yesavg 46.3¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$373.54	50% 1097-1093 (2190)
Rex416	Yesavg 82.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$9.5	56% 2864-2284 (5148)
BR bruhzilCTR	Noavg 19.8¢	$525.12	$491.12	-$34	— 1-4 (5)
MK MKSafeCTR	Noavg 68¢	$1.6K	$432.17	$-1.2K	28% 11-29 (40)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Noavg 41.3¢	$507	$370.82	-$136.18	49% 22892-23745 (46637)
G.Hchen	Yesavg 65.1¢	$204.42	$255.89	+$51.47	57% 411-313 (724)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 65.3¢	$645.84	$255.1	+$51.61	52% 9084-8296 (17380)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 86.5¢	$173	$166	-$7	55% 17627-14544 (32171)
Relaccsed	Yesavg 75¢	$150	$158	-$12	55% 1353-1087 (2440)
HoshinoAICTR	Noavg 25.6¢	$735.13	$113.74	-$187.22	45% 279-341 (620)
PO Poligarch	Yesavg 76.4¢	$125.41	$112.5	-$14.39	55% 26062-21353 (47415)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 23¢	$130	$85	-$45	36% 414-726 (1140)
Car<$100	Yesavg 78.4¢	$81.4	$84.56	+$3.17	66% 4492-2320 (6812)
ifyouloveme<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$50	$67.91	+$17.92	54% 366-307 (673)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Noavg 33.9¢	$111.9	$61.05	-$50.85	39% 242-379 (621)
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100	Noavg 26.3¢	$11.1	$32.3	+$21.2	68% 430-201 (631)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$21.29	$9.61	-$11.68	16% 1419-7677 (9096)

Parz1vaI

Yes

Invested

$2,719.93

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$477.81

Record

73%

3689-1399 (5088)

328.400.fund

Yes

Invested

$1,883.97

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$832.16

Record

58%

43-31 (74)

smellyEllie

Yes

Invested

$1,912.94

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$373.54

Record

50%

1097-1093 (2190)

Rex416

Yes

Invested

$1,232

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$9.5

Record

56%

2864-2284 (5148)

bruhzilCTR

Invested

$525.12

Value

$491.12

PnL

-$34

Record

—

1-4 (5)

MKSafeCTR

Invested

$1,588.5

Value

$432.17

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

28%

11-29 (40)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Invested

$507

Value

$370.82

PnL

-$136.18

Record

49%

22892-23745 (46637)

G.Hchen

Yes

Invested

$204.42

Value

$255.89

PnL

+$51.47

Record

57%

411-313 (724)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$645.84

Value

$255.1

PnL

+$51.61

Record

52%

9084-8296 (17380)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$173

Value

$166

PnL

-$7

Record

55%

17627-14544 (32171)

Relaccsed

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$158

PnL

-$12

Record

55%

1353-1087 (2440)

HoshinoAICTR

Invested

$735.13

Value

$113.74

PnL

-$187.22

Record

45%

279-341 (620)

Poligarch

Yes

Invested

$125.41

Value

$112.5

PnL

-$14.39

Record

55%

26062-21353 (47415)

troimCTR

Invested

$130

Value

$85

PnL

-$45

Record

36%

414-726 (1140)

Car<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.4

Value

$84.56

PnL

+$3.17

Record

66%

4492-2320 (6812)

ifyouloveme<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$67.91

PnL

+$17.92

Record

54%

366-307 (673)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Invested

$111.9

Value

$61.05

PnL

-$50.85

Record

39%

242-379 (621)

SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100

Invested

$11.1

Value

$32.3

PnL

+$21.2

Record

68%

430-201 (631)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$21.29

Value

$9.61

PnL

-$11.68

Record

16%

1419-7677 (9096)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

60h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 63% · 19

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.