Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 16?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 17

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$3.1

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 98.8¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,221

Combined PnL+$77.6

No2 traders

Total Value$30.18

Total Shares3,772

Combined PnL-$80.7

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 96.3¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$38.81	50% 66281-66811 (133092)
Rex416	Yesavg 96.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$25.63	56% 2864-2284 (5148)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yesavg 93.3¢	$165.27	$175.11	+$9.84	49% 22892-23745 (46637)
arjennnnn<$100	Yesavg 96¢	$80	$79.04	+$2.27	68% 879-412 (1291)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 76.4¢	$61.72	$62.77	+$1.05	30% 35522-84044 (119566)
BR bruhzilCTR<$100	Noavg 2.8¢	$62.98	$22.32	-$40.66	— 1-4 (5)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Noavg 5.5¢	$47.89	$7.85	-$40.04	50% 1097-1093 (2190)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$1,414.54

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$38.81

Record

50%

66281-66811 (133092)

Rex416

Yes

Invested

$1,431.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$25.63

Record

56%

2864-2284 (5148)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Yes

Invested

$165.27

Value

$175.11

PnL

+$9.84

Record

49%

22892-23745 (46637)

arjennnnn<$100

Yes

Invested

$80

Value

$79.04

PnL

+$2.27

Record

68%

879-412 (1291)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.72

Value

$62.77

PnL

+$1.05

Record

30%

35522-84044 (119566)

bruhzilCTR<$100

Invested

$62.98

Value

$22.32

PnL

-$40.66

Record

—

1-4 (5)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Invested

$47.89

Value

$7.85

PnL

-$40.04

Record

50%

1097-1093 (2190)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.