Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 3:59 AM ET?

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 81¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 11

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 81¢

+19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 18 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares21,074

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No9 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares14,975

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (17 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pIebe	Yesavg 71.4¢	$10.5K	$11.8K	+$1.4K	— 1-0 (1)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 43.4¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$152.14	82% 516-115 (631)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.8¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$681.16
└ No leg	Noavg 43.4¢	$1.1K	$594.41	-$529.02
JO JokerTheClownCTR	Noavg 53.3¢	$5.1K	$2.2K	$-2.9K	0% 0-188 (188)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yesavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$809.61	— 7-12 (19)
Rex416	Yesavg 85.8¢	$3.4K	$1.3K	$-1.3K	— 5-0 (5)
TR troimARB<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$640.99	$1.2K	+$588.83	1% 2-332 (334)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37¢	$369.49	$769.28	+$400.51
└ No leg	Noavg 13.5¢	$270.99	$459.32	+$188.32
Relaccsed	Yesavg 53.2¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	+$91	— 4-1 (5)
PB pbshineCTR	Noavg 14.7¢	$463.75	$600.25	+$136.49	— 0-3 (3)
Parz1vaI	Yesavg 54¢	$406.46	$476.94	+$174.18	72% 1107-420 (1527)
smellyEllieCTR	Noavg 22.1¢	$360.91	$309.92	-$50.99	— 0-7 (7)
HoshinoAI	Yesavg 65.8¢	$2.1K	$279.26	-$55.79	48% 10-11 (21)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100	Noavg 17.3¢	$1.3K	$171.85	+$436.05	66% 4092-2111 (6203)
└ No leg	Noavg 17.3¢	$101.01	$110.75	+$81
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.9¢	$45.93	$61.1	+$355.05
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 58.3¢	$190.29	$150.41	-$39.88	41% 3090-4455 (7545)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.9¢	$73.25	$104.33	+$31.07
└ No leg	Noavg 58.3¢	$117.03	$46.08	-$70.95
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100	Yesavg 52.6¢	$146.76	$127.85	+$3.1	— 1-18 (19)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.6¢	$64.69	$99.61	+$34.92
└ No leg	Noavg 46.1¢	$56.71	$28.24	-$31.83
EL Electricy<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$54.7	$80.56	+$25.86	— 0-4 (4)
SP SPLPB<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$78	$78	+$0	23% 511-1693 (2204)
CO cocococococoCTR	Noavg 64.5¢	$160.61	$57.17	-$103.45	0% 0-30 (30)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$71	$51.98	+$0.98	15% 3-17 (20)
G.HchenCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$57.09	$25.69	-$31.39	0% 0-96 (96)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$4.87	$18.63	+$13.77	40% 329-494 (823)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$6.41	$18.39	+$11.98	42% 321-439 (760)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$4.69	$17.93	+$13.25	40% 644-964 (1608)
TBill1CTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$35.2	$12.63	-$22.57	0% 0-105 (105)

pIebe

Yes

Invested

$10,474.65

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

—

1-0 (1)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$2,209.49

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$152.14

Record

82%

516-115 (631)

Both legs:

Yes$1,086.0649.8¢+$681.16

No$1,123.4343.4¢-$529.02

JokerTheClownCTR

Invested

$5,076.68

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

0-188 (188)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Yes

Invested

$1,116.68

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$809.61

Record

—

7-12 (19)

Rex416

Yes

Invested

$3,391.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

—

5-0 (5)

troimARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$640.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$588.83

Record

2-332 (334)

Both legs:

Yes$369.4937¢+$400.51

No$270.9913.5¢+$188.32

Relaccsed

Yes

Invested

$1,510.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$91

Record

—

4-1 (5)

pbshineCTR

Invested

$463.75

Value

$600.25

PnL

+$136.49

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Parz1vaI

Yes

Invested

$406.46

Value

$476.94

PnL

+$174.18

Record

72%

1107-420 (1527)

smellyEllieCTR

Invested

$360.91

Value

$309.92

PnL

-$50.99

Record

—

0-7 (7)

HoshinoAI

Yes

Invested

$2,105.12

Value

$279.26

PnL

-$55.79

Record

48%

10-11 (21)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100

Invested

$1,318.59

Value

$171.85

PnL

+$436.05

Record

66%

4092-2111 (6203)

Both legs:

No$101.0117.3¢+$81

Yes$45.9360.9¢+$355.05

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$190.29

Value

$150.41

PnL

-$39.88

Record

41%

3090-4455 (7545)

Both legs:

Yes$73.2556.9¢+$31.07

No$117.0358.3¢-$70.95

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$146.76

Value

$127.85

PnL

+$3.1

Record

—

1-18 (19)

Both legs:

Yes$64.6952.6¢+$34.92

No$56.7146.1¢-$31.83

Electricy<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.7

Value

$80.56

PnL

+$25.86

Record

—

0-4 (4)

SPLPB<$100

Yes

Invested

$78

Value

$78

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

511-1693 (2204)

cocococococoCTR

Invested

$160.61

Value

$57.17

PnL

-$103.45

Record

0-30 (30)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$71

Value

$51.98

PnL

+$0.98

Record

15%

3-17 (20)

G.HchenCTR<$100

Invested

$57.09

Value

$25.69

PnL

-$31.39

Record

0-96 (96)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

$18.63

PnL

+$13.77

Record

40%

329-494 (823)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$18.39

PnL

+$11.98

Record

42%

321-439 (760)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$4.69

Value

$17.93

PnL

+$13.25

Record

40%

644-964 (1608)

TBill1CTR<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$12.63

PnL

-$22.57

Record

0-105 (105)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 18 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (17 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.