Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 85¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 11

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 84.5¢

+69% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares12,840

Combined PnL+$3.0K

No7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares7,354

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
seal7	Yesavg 50.6¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$348.16	0% 0-77 (77)
smellyEllie	Yesavg 40.6¢	$1.4K	$2.8K	+$1.4K	— 0-7 (7)
TR troim	Yesavg 53.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$742.72	0% 0-332 (332)
G.Hchen	Yesavg 60.3¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	-$131.08	0% 0-96 (96)
AL AlphaBetaGamma2357	Yesavg 60¢	$600	$820	+$220	— 0-5 (5)
Relaccsed	Yesavg 45.6¢	$551.5	$698	+$272.5	— 4-1 (5)
PO PoligarchCTR	Noavg 52.8¢	$781.47	$689.47	-$92.01	86% 438-72 (510)
Parz1vaICTR	Noavg 49.9¢	$4.5K	$612.53	+$994.35	72% 1106-420 (1526)
PB pbshineCTR	Noavg 51.5¢	$1.1K	$294	-$787	— 0-3 (3)
HoshinoAIARB<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$4.3K	$279.45	$-1.0K	— 10-8 (18)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.6¢	$126.78	$218.44	-$43.46
└ No leg	Noavg 58.4¢	$254.47	$61.01	-$977.3
SP SPLPBCTR	Noavg 76¢	$1.3K	$233.24	$-1.0K	23% 510-1692 (2202)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Noavg 12¢	$176.58	$206.01	+$29.43	— 2-4 (6)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 42.1¢	$302	$86.22	-$50.15	— 0-12 (12)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.3¢	$42.84	$58.22	+$8.16
└ No leg	Noavg 42.1¢	$84.25	$28	-$58.31
SU SulkingCryptoCTR	Noavg 45.6¢	$134.61	$79.56	-$24.81	— 1-9 (10)
clazzy1CTR	Noavg 54.4¢	$1.0K	$68.9	-$352.45	0% 0-37 (37)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 65.1¢	$58.46	$64.69	+$6.23	40% 3003-4412 (7415)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$42.74	$61.49	+$18.75	50% 4490-4436 (8926)
KU kukubaja	Yesavg 49.1¢	$387.75	$41	+$171.21	— 1-5 (6)

seal7

Yes

Invested

$3,396.16

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$348.16

Record

0-77 (77)

smellyEllie

Yes

Invested

$1,367.78

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

—

0-7 (7)

troim

Yes

Invested

$1,608.38

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$742.72

Record

0-332 (332)

G.Hchen

Yes

Invested

$2,266.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$131.08

Record

0-96 (96)

AlphaBetaGamma2357

Yes

Invested

$600

Value

$820

PnL

+$220

Record

—

0-5 (5)

Relaccsed

Yes

Invested

$551.5

Value

$698

PnL

+$272.5

Record

—

4-1 (5)

PoligarchCTR

Invested

$781.47

Value

$689.47

PnL

-$92.01

Record

86%

438-72 (510)

Parz1vaICTR

Invested

$4,523.34

Value

$612.53

PnL

+$994.35

Record

72%

1106-420 (1526)

pbshineCTR

Invested

$1,081

Value

$294

PnL

-$787

Record

—

0-3 (3)

HoshinoAIARB<$100

Invested

$4,319.57

Value

$279.45

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

—

10-8 (18)

Both legs:

Yes$126.7847.6¢-$43.46

No$254.4758.4¢-$977.3

SPLPBCTR

Invested

$1,266.16

Value

$233.24

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

23%

510-1692 (2202)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Invested

$176.58

Value

$206.01

PnL

+$29.43

Record

—

2-4 (6)

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$302

Value

$86.22

PnL

-$50.15

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Both legs:

Yes$42.8460.3¢+$8.16

No$84.2542.1¢-$58.31

SulkingCryptoCTR

Invested

$134.61

Value

$79.56

PnL

-$24.81

Record

—

1-9 (10)

clazzy1CTR

Invested

$1,033

Value

$68.9

PnL

-$352.45

Record

0-37 (37)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.46

Value

$64.69

PnL

+$6.23

Record

40%

3003-4412 (7415)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.74

Value

$61.49

PnL

+$18.75

Record

50%

4490-4436 (8926)

kukubaja

Yes

Invested

$387.75

Value

$41

PnL

+$171.21

Record

—

1-5 (6)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.