Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?

21 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 82¢ · $214K held · ends Nov 11

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$214.3K

Combined PnL

$-9.2K

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 82.1¢

-7% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 30 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No21 traders

Total Value$200.7K

Total Shares220,738

Combined PnL$-7.5K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares89,577

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

104h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 26

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Electricy	Noavg 88.6¢	$84.1K	$81.6K	$-2.6K	— 0-4 (4)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 88.1¢	$73.3K	$68.8K	$-2.2K	72% 1106-420 (1526)
Rex416	Noavg 86.7¢	$14.4K	$12.9K	-$369.08	— 4-0 (4)
KU kukubaja	Noavg 87.7¢	$11.3K	$9.8K	-$457.71	— 1-5 (6)
seal7	Noavg 83.6¢	$6.4K	$6.6K	+$172.69	0% 0-77 (77)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$9.2K	$5.6K	$-1.1K	— 0-7 (7)
arjennnnn	Noavg 95.1¢	$5.6K	$5.1K	-$542.24	68% 516-238 (754)
clazzy1	Noavg 87.2¢	$4.2K	$3.5K	-$21.7	0% 0-37 (37)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 9.2¢	$2.2K	$3.4K	+$1.1K	0% 1-266 (267)
71 71122	Noavg 92.7¢	$3.5K	$2.6K	-$377.97	— 4-2 (6)
KL klli27	Noavg 81.7¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$82.17	27% 499-1343 (1842)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 93.6¢	$2.1K	$1.6K	-$206.96	— 2-4 (6)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 87.1¢	$3.1K	$1.5K	-$205.59	— 1-10 (11)
AL AlphaBetaGamma2357CTR	Yesavg 21.8¢	$2.6K	$1.4K	$-1.2K	— 0-5 (5)
Relaccsed	Noavg 85.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$47.88	— 4-1 (5)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 18.9¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$174.85	0% 0-332 (332)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$836.98	$831.2	-$5.78	88% 434-59 (493)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.3¢	$545.81	$598.22	+$52.41
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.7¢	$291.17	$232.99	-$58.18
PB pbshineCTR	Yesavg 12.7¢	$1.5K	$734.21	-$438.59	— 0-3 (3)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 85.7¢	$1.2K	$689.41	-$12.12	— 0-12 (12)
DG DG-NO	Noavg 86.7¢	$520	$515.23	-$4.77	36% 389-679 (1068)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 74.1¢	$455.61	$506.96	+$51.35	40% 3001-4411 (7412)
SU SulkingCrypto	Noavg 75.4¢	$338.17	$310.2	-$24.01	— 1-9 (10)
SP SPLPB	Noavg 87.4¢	$2.0K	$276.9	-$44.21	23% 510-1692 (2202)
HoshinoAI	Noavg 88.3¢	$12.0K	$268.79	-$388.35	— 10-8 (18)
G.Hchen	Noavg 86.8¢	$1.6K	$224.21	-$207.21	0% 0-96 (96)

Electricy

Invested

$84,106.7

Value

$81.6K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

—

0-4 (4)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$73,282.25

Value

$68.8K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

72%

1106-420 (1526)

Rex416

Invested

$14,391.63

Value

$12.9K

PnL

-$369.08

Record

—

4-0 (4)

kukubaja

Invested

$11,288.36

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$457.71

Record

—

1-5 (6)

seal7

Invested

$6,417.94

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$172.69

Record

0-77 (77)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,182.92

Value

$5.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

—

0-7 (7)

arjennnnn

Invested

$5,608.62

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$542.24

Record

68%

516-238 (754)

clazzy1

Invested

$4,243.48

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$21.7

Record

0-37 (37)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,222.98

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

1-266 (267)

71122

Invested

$3,467.66

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$377.97

Record

—

4-2 (6)

klli27

Invested

$3,015.16

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$82.17

Record

27%

499-1343 (1842)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$2,052.16

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$206.96

Record

—

2-4 (6)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$3,100.55

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$205.59

Record

—

1-10 (11)

AlphaBetaGamma2357CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,592.89

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

—

0-5 (5)

Relaccsed

Invested

$1,407.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$47.88

Record

—

4-1 (5)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,749.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$174.85

Record

0-332 (332)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$836.98

Value

$831.2

PnL

-$5.78

Record

88%

434-59 (493)

Both legs:

No$545.8178.3¢+$52.41

Yes$291.1717.7¢-$58.18

pbshineCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,464.75

Value

$734.21

PnL

-$438.59

Record

—

0-3 (3)

WarriorH

Invested

$1,211.33

Value

$689.41

PnL

-$12.12

Record

—

0-12 (12)

DG-NO

Invested

$520

Value

$515.23

PnL

-$4.77

Record

36%

389-679 (1068)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$455.61

Value

$506.96

PnL

+$51.35

Record

40%

3001-4411 (7412)

SulkingCrypto

Invested

$338.17

Value

$310.2

PnL

-$24.01

Record

—

1-9 (10)

SPLPB

Invested

$1,968.02

Value

$276.9

PnL

-$44.21

Record

23%

510-1692 (2202)

HoshinoAI

Invested

$11,950.35

Value

$268.79

PnL

-$388.35

Record

—

10-8 (18)

G.Hchen

Invested

$1,601.12

Value

$224.21

PnL

-$207.21

Record

0-96 (96)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 30 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

104h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 26

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.8%

82.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.