Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will John Rose be the next to hold Blackburn's Senate seat by March 31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 30¢ · $643 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$642.79
-$174.94
42.6¢ → 30.4¢
-29% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4CTR | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $534.69 | $363.16 | -$171.53 | — |
 longliveapples | Noavg 88¢ | $154 | $122.94 | -$31.06 | 0% 0-25 (25) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 66.3¢ | $82.93 | $87.81 | +$4.89 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 48.9¢ | $34.26 | $49.18 | +$14.92 | 50% 4477-4426 (8903) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.7¢ | $5.52 | $14.08 | +$8.56 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 79.2¢ | $6.34 | $5.62 | -$0.72 | 38% 1190-1979 (3169) |
Invested
$534.69
Value
$363.16
PnL
-$171.53
Record
—
longliveapplesInvested
$154
Value
$122.94
PnL
-$31.06
Record
0%
0-25 (25)
Invested
$82.93
Value
$87.81
PnL
+$4.89
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
balthazar<$100Invested
$34.26
Value
$49.18
PnL
+$14.92
Record
50%
4477-4426 (8903)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$14.08
PnL
+$8.56
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
Invested
$6.34
Value
$5.62
PnL
-$0.72
Record
38%
1190-1979 (3169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.