Will Jim Jordan be the first House Minority Leader after the 2026 midterms?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 99¢ · $378 held · ended Nov 4

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$377.95

Combined PnL

-$25.5

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 98.9¢

+14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$345.52

Total Shares349

Combined PnL+$41.58

No5 traders

Total Value$32.43

Total Shares2,862

Combined PnL-$67.08

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DirkDiggler67	Yesavg 98.9¢	$211.19	$211.2	+$0.01	59% 275-192 (467)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Yesavg 51.1¢	$40.9	$79.11	+$38.22	39% 1051-1631 (2682)
Robbb<$100	Yesavg 92.9¢	$51.85	$55.21	+$3.35	— 1-0 (1)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$47.2	$25.41	-$21.79	50% 4583-4495 (9078)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 3.5¢	$13.1	$4.07	-$9.03	30% 2638-6194 (8832)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 17.4¢	$11.92	$1.67	-$10.24	41% 3090-4455 (7545)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$18.79	$1.09	-$17.7	13% 50-327 (377)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$8.5	$0.19	-$8.31	— 9-0 (9)

DirkDiggler67

Yes

Invested

$211.19

Value

$211.2

PnL

+$0.01

Record

59%

275-192 (467)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.9

Value

$79.11

PnL

+$38.22

Record

39%

1051-1631 (2682)

Robbb<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.85

Value

$55.21

PnL

+$3.35

Record

—

1-0 (1)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$47.2

Value

$25.41

PnL

-$21.79

Record

50%

4583-4495 (9078)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$13.1

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$9.03

Record

30%

2638-6194 (8832)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$11.92

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$10.24

Record

41%

3090-4455 (7545)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$18.79

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$17.7

Record

13%

50-327 (377)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$8.31

Record

—

9-0 (9)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.