Will Jensen Huang be arrested by November 30, 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 97¢ · $10K held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 88%
$10.0K
$36.79
96.4¢ → 97.4¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Noavg 95.6¢ | $6.3K | $6.4K | +$116.08 | — 7-0 (7) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 97.9¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$67.78 | — 2-2 (4) |
AL Alegrandebig | Noavg 98¢ | $392 | $382.4 | -$9.6 | — 12-7 (19) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $154.56 | $152.96 | -$1.6 | 42% 25-34 (59) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 96.6¢ | $133.66 | $132.27 | -$1.38 | 74% 31-11 (42) |
 HoshinoAI | Noavg 95.7¢ | $312.31 | $43 | +$0.83 | 36% 19-34 (53) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $17.41 | $17.73 | +$0.33 | 45% 10-12 (22) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $0.2 | $0.12 | -$0.08 | 40% 3331-4971 (8302) |
Invested
$6,266.33
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$116.08
Record
—
7-0 (7)
Invested
$2,935.78
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$67.78
Record
—
2-2 (4)
Invested
$392
Value
$382.4
PnL
-$9.6
Record
—
12-7 (19)
Invested
$154.56
Value
$152.96
PnL
-$1.6
Record
42%
25-34 (59)
Invested
$133.66
Value
$132.27
PnL
-$1.38
Record
74%
31-11 (42)
HoshinoAIInvested
$312.31
Value
$43
PnL
+$0.83
Record
36%
19-34 (53)
Invested
$17.41
Value
$17.73
PnL
+$0.33
Record
45%
10-12 (22)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$0.08
Record
40%
3331-4971 (8302)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.