Will James Pantemis win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 80¢ · $601 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$600.98

Combined PnL

-$134.72

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 80.2¢

-20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$600.91

Total Shares737

Combined PnL-$134.64

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.07

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$0.08

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE pelik	Noavg 99.9¢	$482.69	$347.16	-$135.53	99% 1315-4 (1319)
CosmicCedar	Noavg 99.7¢	$172.26	$172.59	+$0.32	8% 8-96 (104)
PV pvc975<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$80.6	$81.17	+$0.57	99% 148-2 (150)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.12	$0.04	-$0.08	13% 46-303 (349)
IT ItlliccaaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	—
HY HypurrrrrrCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	—
BL BlaorraCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	—
AV AvvnnnnCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	—

pelik

Invested

$482.69

Value

$347.16

PnL

-$135.53

Record

99%

1315-4 (1319)

CosmicCedar

Invested

$172.26

Value

$172.59

PnL

+$0.32

Record

8-96 (104)

pvc975<$100

Invested

$80.6

Value

$81.17

PnL

+$0.57

Record

99%

148-2 (150)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.08

Record

13%

46-303 (349)

ItlliccaaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

—

HypurrrrrrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

—

BlaorraCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

—

AvvnnnnCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.0%

80.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.