Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Iran target Bahrain by November 22, 2026?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 3.1¢ · $268 held · ends Nov 23

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Mon, Nov 23, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$267.84

Combined PnL

-$156.24

Smart Money Entry

14.9¢ → 3.1¢

-79% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$160.73

Total Shares151

Combined PnL-$83.73

No8 traders

Total Value$107.1

Total Shares1,178

Combined PnL-$72.5

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Car	Yesavg 95.8¢	$848.17	$117.57	-$83.68	68% 1415-653 (2068)
Robbb<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$39.01	$39.01	+$0	— 14-2 (16)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 24.5¢	$158.38	$36.42	-$14.46	38% 3759-6065 (9824)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$19.5	$25.5	+$6	26% 102-294 (396)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 12.7¢	$48.12	$20.78	-$27.34	14% 97-580 (677)
JO JokerTheClownCTR<$100	Noavg 21.1¢	$11.47	$9.24	-$2.23	8% 18-208 (226)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Noavg 13.6¢	$38.84	$6.46	-$28.92	— 9-6 (15)
ENORMOUZ<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$4.2	$4.15	-$0.05	87% 20-3 (23)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 8.5¢	$10.65	$3.9	-$6.75	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$2.6	$3.4	+$0.8	17% 29-146 (175)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$1	$1.4	+$0.4	43% 5159-6926 (12085)

Car

Yes

Invested

$848.17

Value

$117.57

PnL

-$83.68

Record

68%

1415-653 (2068)

Robbb<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.01

Value

$39.01

PnL

+$0

Record

—

14-2 (16)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$158.38

Value

$36.42

PnL

-$14.46

Record

38%

3759-6065 (9824)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$6

Record

26%

102-294 (396)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$48.12

Value

$20.78

PnL

-$27.34

Record

14%

97-580 (677)

JokerTheClownCTR<$100

Invested

$11.47

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$2.23

Record

18-208 (226)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Invested

$38.84

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$28.92

Record

—

9-6 (15)

ENORMOUZ<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

87%

20-3 (23)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.65

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$6.75

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.8

Record

17%

29-146 (175)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

43%

5159-6926 (12085)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.1%

3.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2339.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

2439.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.