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Yes
balthazarYes
Robbb<$100YesYesYesNoYesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Will Iran target an Arab country by November 30, 2026?
Resolved Yes. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 83%
Total Value
$307.91
Combined PnL
$7.83
Smart Money Signal
Yes
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes7 traders
Total Value$307.91
Total Shares308
Combined PnL+$20.62
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares177
Combined PnL-$12.79
Yes — 88%No — 12%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 95.3¢ | $207.07 | $217.32 | +$10.25 | 53% 7447-6561 (14008) |
balthazar | Yesavg 99.3¢ | $156.47 | $28.42 | +$0.68 | 42% 5200-7083 (12283) |
Robbb<$100 | Yesavg 94¢ | $23.6 | $25.11 | +$1.51 | — 14-3 (17) |
BR browne<$100 | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $19.5 | $20 | +$0.5 | — 3-7 (10) |
HU hugecaulk<$100 | Yesavg 78.6¢ | $13.37 | $17 | +$3.63 | 33% 13-27 (40) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $94.9 | — | -$12.79 | 38% 3787-6190 (9977) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Yesavg 91.3¢ | $74.49 | $0.06 | +$4.05 | 26% 106-295 (401) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 58% 15-11 (26) |
CI
cigarettesInvested
$207.07
Value
$217.32
PnL
+$10.25
Record
53%
7447-6561 (14008)
balthazarInvested
$156.47
Value
$28.42
PnL
+$0.68
Record
42%
5200-7083 (12283)
Robbb<$100Invested
$23.6
Value
$25.11
PnL
+$1.51
Record
—
14-3 (17)
BR
browne<$100Invested
$19.5
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.5
Record
—
3-7 (10)
HU
hugecaulk<$100Invested
$13.37
Value
$17
PnL
+$3.63
Record
33%
13-27 (40)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$94.9
Value
—
PnL
-$12.79
Record
38%
3787-6190 (9977)
0X
0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100Invested
$74.49
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$4.05
Record
26%
106-295 (401)
HI
hithitfar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
15-11 (26)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3b612cfc...da446c
Slug
will-iran-target-an-arab-country-by-november-30-2026-20261113