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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes

Will Iran target an Arab country by November 22, 2026?

Resolved Yes. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

10

Yes 29%

Total Value

$266.04

Combined PnL

-$34.74

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$266.04

Total Shares266

Combined PnL+$21.25

No6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares515

Combined PnL-$55.99

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR browne	Yesavg 98.6¢	$237.68	$241	+$3.32	— 3-7 (10)
Robbb<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$23.5	$25	+$1.5	— 14-3 (17)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 5.1¢	$11.21	—	-$11.21	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$36.1	—	-$21.82	38% 3787-6190 (9977)
HI hithitfarCTR<$100	Noavg 14.2¢	$7.46	—	-$7.46	58% 15-11 (26)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 0.4¢	$0.63	—	-$14.83	42% 5200-7083 (12283)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Yesavg 85.3¢	$127.89	$0.04	+$15.98	26% 106-295 (401)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 2.4¢	$0.58	—	-$0.58	16% 39-209 (248)
ENORMOUZ<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$4.5	—	+$0.45	88% 21-3 (24)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$30.1	—	-$0.1	16% 29-156 (185)

Invested

$237.68

Value

$241

PnL

+$3.32

Record

—

3-7 (10)

Invested

$23.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$1.5

Record

—

14-3 (17)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$11.21

Value

—

PnL

-$11.21

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$36.1

Value

—

PnL

-$21.82

Record

38%

3787-6190 (9977)

hithitfarCTR<$100

Invested

$7.46

Value

—

PnL

-$7.46

Record

58%

15-11 (26)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$0.63

Value

—

PnL

-$14.83

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$127.89

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$15.98

Record

26%

106-295 (401)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$0.58

Value

—

PnL

-$0.58

Record

16%

39-209 (248)

Invested

$4.5

Value

—

PnL

+$0.45

Record

88%

21-3 (24)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$30.1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.1

Record

16%

29-156 (185)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x984c9c56...063493

Slug

will-iran-target-an-arab-country-by-november-22-2026-20261113

Traders in this Market

browne

Yes — $241

Robbb

Yes — $25

cigarettes

No — $0

xtxpleasecallme

No — $0

hithitfar

No — $0

balthazar

No — $0

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Yes — $0.04

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

No — $0

ENORMOUZ

Yes — $0

SulkingCrypto

No — $0

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