Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$30.83
60.9¢ → 77.5¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
409h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.1K | +$144.43 | 36% 15138-27265 (42403) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43¢ | $433.59 | $729.81 | +$339.2 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $550.86 | $338.7 | -$194.77 | |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 60.4¢ | $250.84 | $300.73 | +$49.89 | 54% 195-169 (364) |
AL Albert 1953CTR | Yesavg 55.2¢ | $287.62 | $150.99 | -$121.01 | 50% 1068-1081 (2149) |
C0 C03B | Noavg 72.4¢ | $184.99 | $143.37 | +$9.49 | 85% 687-120 (807) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Noavg 33.6¢ | $23.51 | $54.3 | +$30.79 | 63% 756-438 (1194) |
Invested
$1,537.75
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$144.43
Record
36%
15138-27265 (42403)
Both legs:
Invested
$250.84
Value
$300.73
PnL
+$49.89
Record
54%
195-169 (364)
Invested
$287.62
Value
$150.99
PnL
-$121.01
Record
50%
1068-1081 (2149)
Invested
$184.99
Value
$143.37
PnL
+$9.49
Record
85%
687-120 (807)
Invested
$23.51
Value
$54.3
PnL
+$30.79
Record
63%
756-438 (1194)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.