Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 82¢ · $746 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$745.73
$30.99
68.6¢ → 82¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 68.3¢ | $1.0K | $319.54 | -$30.74 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 65.5¢ | $148.86 | $186.21 | +$37.35 | 55% 217-179 (396) |
AL Albert 1953 | Noavg 79.2¢ | $151.3 | $152.8 | +$5.32 | 50% 1080-1085 (2165) |
 solwizzo-onX<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $55.99 | $79.99 | +$26 | 67% 346-173 (519) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.3¢ | $14.13 | $7.2 | -$6.93 | 63% 784-463 (1247) |
Invested
$1,017.89
Value
$319.54
PnL
-$30.74
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
Invested
$148.86
Value
$186.21
PnL
+$37.35
Record
55%
217-179 (396)
Invested
$151.3
Value
$152.8
PnL
+$5.32
Record
50%
1080-1085 (2165)
solwizzo-onX<$100Invested
$55.99
Value
$79.99
PnL
+$26
Record
67%
346-173 (519)
Invested
$14.13
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$6.93
Record
63%
784-463 (1247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.