Will Hugo Motta be the next President of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 72¢ · $234 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$234.11
-$12.3
Research grade
NeutralYes at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 longliveapples | Yesavg 73.6¢ | $194.49 | $161.1 | -$33.38 | 0% 0-25 (25) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Noavg 26.8¢ | $20.1 | $29.25 | +$9.15 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.3¢ | $16.4 | $23.4 | +$7 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $6.43 | $7.84 | +$1.41 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $5.6 | $7.8 | +$2.2 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $3.39 | $4.72 | +$1.33 | 79% 394-105 (499) |
longliveapplesInvested
$194.49
Value
$161.1
PnL
-$33.38
Record
0%
0-25 (25)
Invested
$20.1
Value
$29.25
PnL
+$9.15
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$16.4
Value
$23.4
PnL
+$7
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$6.43
Value
$7.84
PnL
+$1.41
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$7.8
PnL
+$2.2
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
Invested
$3.39
Value
$4.72
PnL
+$1.33
Record
79%
394-105 (499)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.