Will His & Hers be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 93¢ · $195 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$194.82
-$21.57
91¢ → 93¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU buoysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $97.49 | $76.17 | -$21.32 | — 0-11 (11) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $56.01 | $58.19 | +$2.18 | 39% 1051-1631 (2682) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $46.65 | $46.53 | -$0.13 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $10.24 | $10.46 | +$0.22 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $6 | $3.48 | -$2.52 | 85% 62-11 (73) |
Invested
$97.49
Value
$76.17
PnL
-$21.32
Record
—
0-11 (11)
Invested
$56.01
Value
$58.19
PnL
+$2.18
Record
39%
1051-1631 (2682)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$46.65
Value
$46.53
PnL
-$0.13
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$10.24
Value
$10.46
PnL
+$0.22
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$6
Value
$3.48
PnL
-$2.52
Record
85%
62-11 (73)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.