Will Google have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 76¢ · $303 held · ends Dec 16

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$302.74

Combined PnL

$22.65

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 75.5¢

+13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$255.36

Total Shares336

Combined PnL+$34.85

No6 traders

Total Value$47.38

Total Shares190

Combined PnL-$12.19

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1	Yesavg 70.5¢	$243.98	$241.68	+$18.98	— 0-1 (1)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 39.8¢	$31.8	$20	-$11.8	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$6.81	$13.68	+$15.87	18% 819-3634 (4453)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$11.31	$9.75	-$1.56	9% 6-58 (64)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$5.6	$5	-$0.6	5% 4-69 (73)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$7.5	$5	+$7.31	30% 2982-7081 (10063)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$5	$4.9	-$0.1	— 8-7 (15)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$68.17	$2.73	-$5.45	40% 3295-4922 (8217)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1

Yes

Invested

$243.98

Value

$241.68

PnL

+$18.98

Record

—

0-1 (1)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$31.8

Value

$20

PnL

-$11.8

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.81

Value

$13.68

PnL

+$15.87

Record

18%

819-3634 (4453)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$11.31

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$1.56

Record

6-58 (64)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

PnL

-$0.6

Record

4-69 (73)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

PnL

+$7.31

Record

30%

2982-7081 (10063)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

8-7 (15)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$68.17

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$5.45

Record

40%

3295-4922 (8217)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.2%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.