Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$2.4K
$125.75
91.9¢ → 98.5¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+21 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rewardbots | Noavg 91.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$164.46 | — 3-16 (19) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Noavg 97¢ | $186.99 | $189.78 | +$2.8 | — 7-2 (9) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $10.67 | $5.28 | -$5.38 | 13% 46-303 (349) |
 ifyouloveme<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $4.92 | -$0.03 | 52% 272-250 (522) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $11.91 | $4.77 | -$7.15 | 38% 78-128 (206) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $51.56 | $2.6 | -$20.24 | 40% 3308-4936 (8244) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $9.36 | $2.08 | -$7.28 | 6% 5-73 (78) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.99 | $0.57 | -$1.42 | 23% 514-1702 (2216) |
rewardbotsInvested
$1,988.42
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$164.46
Record
—
3-16 (19)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$186.99
Value
$189.78
PnL
+$2.8
Record
—
7-2 (9)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$10.67
Value
$5.28
PnL
-$5.38
Record
13%
46-303 (349)
ifyouloveme<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.92
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
272-250 (522)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$11.91
Value
$4.77
PnL
-$7.15
Record
38%
78-128 (206)
Invested
$51.56
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$20.24
Record
40%
3308-4936 (8244)
Invested
$9.36
Value
$2.08
PnL
-$7.28
Record
6%
5-73 (78)
Invested
$1.99
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$1.42
Record
23%
514-1702 (2216)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.