Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 91¢ · $637 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$637.02
-$63.37
78.4¢ → 91.3¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 76.4¢ | $418.75 | $498.68 | +$79.93 | — 7-2 (9) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Yesavg 92.5¢ | $51.06 | $46.2 | -$1.11 | 6% 6-92 (98) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.8¢ | $83.9 | $26.6 | -$57.3 | 13% 54-364 (418) |
 ifyouloveme<$100 | Yesavg 92.3¢ | $25.66 | $25.37 | -$0.29 | 52% 275-250 (525) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 25.6¢ | $76.78 | $23.84 | -$48.59 | 40% 3401-5040 (8441) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 28.9¢ | $45.14 | $13.26 | -$31.88 | 45% 10-12 (22) |
 HoshinoAI<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $38.54 | $3.07 | -$4.15 | 35% 19-35 (54) |
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$418.75
Value
$498.68
PnL
+$79.93
Record
—
7-2 (9)
Invested
$51.06
Value
$46.2
PnL
-$1.11
Record
6%
6-92 (98)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$83.9
Value
$26.6
PnL
-$57.3
Record
13%
54-364 (418)
ifyouloveme<$100Invested
$25.66
Value
$25.37
PnL
-$0.29
Record
52%
275-250 (525)
Invested
$76.78
Value
$23.84
PnL
-$48.59
Record
40%
3401-5040 (8441)
Invested
$45.14
Value
$13.26
PnL
-$31.88
Record
45%
10-12 (22)
HoshinoAI<$100Invested
$38.54
Value
$3.07
PnL
-$4.15
Record
35%
19-35 (54)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.