Will "FRESH - Lil Baby" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 21?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $545 held · ends Nov 17

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$544.81

Combined PnL

$25.93

Smart Money Entry

86.7¢ → 99.7¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$543.08

Total Shares545

Combined PnL+$70.63

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.72

Total Shares572

Combined PnL-$44.7

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KimchiCapital	Noavg 95.2¢	$206.33	$216.08	+$9.75	90% 18-2 (20)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 83.9¢	$146.78	$174.47	+$27.69	53% 7612-6705 (14317)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 96¢	$80.95	$84.11	+$3.16	30% 1195-2736 (3931)
GU guilttrip<$100	Noavg 20.8¢	$7.68	$36.89	+$29.21	49% 32-33 (65)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$30.72	$31.54	+$0.82	28% 48-125 (173)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$39.19	$1.2	-$5.7	38% 3881-6344 (10225)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.9¢	$38.42	$0.43	-$37.99	14% 110-653 (763)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 86.6¢	$40.81	$0.07	-$23.96	11% 29-225 (254)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$0.41	$0.02	+$22.94	23% 816-2733 (3549)

KimchiCapital

Invested

$206.33

Value

$216.08

PnL

+$9.75

Record

90%

18-2 (20)

cigarettes

Invested

$146.78

Value

$174.47

PnL

+$27.69

Record

53%

7612-6705 (14317)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$80.95

Value

$84.11

PnL

+$3.16

Record

30%

1195-2736 (3931)

guilttrip<$100

Invested

$7.68

Value

$36.89

PnL

+$29.21

Record

49%

32-33 (65)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$30.72

Value

$31.54

PnL

+$0.82

Record

28%

48-125 (173)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.19

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$5.7

Record

38%

3881-6344 (10225)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.42

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$37.99

Record

14%

110-653 (763)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.81

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$23.96

Record

11%

29-225 (254)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$22.94

Record

23%

816-2733 (3549)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.