Will Fernando Mendoza win the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 77¢ · $3K held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$89.25

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 77.4¢

-9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,879

Combined PnL-$154.13

Yes1 trader

Total Value$473.56

Total Shares2,015

Combined PnL+$243.38

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Noavg 81¢	$653.28	$634.06	+$121.38	39% 1053-1631 (2684)
└ No leg	Noavg 81¢	$527.93	$498.68	-$29.25
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10.1¢	$58.23	$135.38	+$150.63
AU auros2	Noavg 80.6¢	$556.97	$495.05	-$26.78	84% 66-13 (79)
RobbbCTR	Yesavg 11.4¢	$230.18	$473.56	+$243.38	— 2-0 (2)
CosmicCedar	Noavg 83¢	$414.99	$382.49	-$32.5	1% 1-89 (90)
Haradwaith	Noavg 90¢	$439.44	$373.57	-$65.87	51% 40-38 (78)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$85.87	$70.38	-$15.49	41% 3126-4493 (7619)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$62.92	$60.3	-$2.62	3% 1-32 (33)
SP SPLPB<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$42.01	$36.73	-$5.28	23% 511-1698 (2209)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 89¢	$39.79	$34.2	-$5.59	10% 3-28 (31)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Invested

$653.28

Value

$634.06

PnL

+$121.38

Record

39%

1053-1631 (2684)

Both legs:

No$527.9381¢-$29.25

Yes$58.2310.1¢+$150.63

auros2

Invested

$556.97

Value

$495.05

PnL

-$26.78

Record

84%

66-13 (79)

RobbbCTR

Yes

Invested

$230.18

Value

$473.56

PnL

+$243.38

Record

—

2-0 (2)

CosmicCedar

Invested

$414.99

Value

$382.49

PnL

-$32.5

Record

1-89 (90)

Haradwaith

Invested

$439.44

Value

$373.57

PnL

-$65.87

Record

51%

40-38 (78)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$85.87

Value

$70.38

PnL

-$15.49

Record

41%

3126-4493 (7619)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$62.92

Value

$60.3

PnL

-$2.62

Record

1-32 (33)

SPLPB<$100

Invested

$42.01

Value

$36.73

PnL

-$5.28

Record

23%

511-1698 (2209)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$39.79

Value

$34.2

PnL

-$5.59

Record

10%

3-28 (31)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.2%

77.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.