Will England win 2026-27 Nations League Group A3?

1 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (6%) · Yes at 100¢ · $714 held · ends Dec 2

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 6%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$714.33

Combined PnL

-$142.5

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 16 top traders (6%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$461.67

Total Shares462

Combined PnL+$0.23

No15 traders

Total Value$201.49

Total Shares820

Combined PnL-$142.73

Yes — 6%No — 94%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Yesavg 99.9¢	$461.44	$461.67	+$0.23	98% 542-12 (554)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 68.5¢	$310.74	$120.27	-$190.47	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100	Yesavg 48.7¢	$24.82	$51.17	+$26.35	40% 280-415 (695)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.7¢	$20.62	$28.77	+$8.15
└ No leg	Noavg 6¢	$4.2	$22.4	+$18.2
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 21.2¢	$16.99	$16	+$18.31	42% 5253-7309 (12562)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 43.6¢	$22.4	$13.61	-$8.8	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$2.1	$9.6	+$7.5	39% 346-547 (893)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 11.9¢	$2.99	$8.05	+$5.06	50% 910-924 (1834)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 30.3¢	$28.18	$6.64	+$6.11	23% 816-2733 (3549)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$3.88	$5.16	+$1.28	14% 110-653 (763)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$2.34	$4.54	+$2.2	60% 938-634 (1572)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$5.03	$3.98	-$1.05	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 8.1¢	$0.94	$3.69	+$2.76	56% 888-693 (1581)
AL alex20011CTR	Noavg 77¢	$134.14	$2.82	+$12.54	43% 1137-1514 (2651)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$1.66	$1.84	+$0.18	52% 994-930 (1924)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$1.65	$1.84	+$0.18	52% 969-886 (1855)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$1.64	$1.83	+$0.18	48% 1294-1427 (2721)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$0.36	$1.63	+$1.28	50% 975-969 (1944)

pvc975

Yes

Invested

$461.44

Value

$461.67

PnL

+$0.23

Record

98%

542-12 (554)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$310.74

Value

$120.27

PnL

-$190.47

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.82

Value

$51.17

PnL

+$26.35

Record

40%

280-415 (695)

Both legs:

Yes$20.6248.7¢+$8.15

No$4.26¢+$18.2

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$16.99

Value

$16

PnL

+$18.31

Record

42%

5253-7309 (12562)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$22.4

Value

$13.61

PnL

-$8.8

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$7.5

Record

39%

346-547 (893)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.99

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$5.06

Record

50%

910-924 (1834)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$28.18

Value

$6.64

PnL

+$6.11

Record

23%

816-2733 (3549)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$3.88

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$1.28

Record

14%

110-653 (763)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$2.34

Value

$4.54

PnL

+$2.2

Record

60%

938-634 (1572)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$3.98

PnL

-$1.05

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.94

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$2.76

Record

56%

888-693 (1581)

alex20011CTR

Invested

$134.14

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$12.54

Record

43%

1137-1514 (2651)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

994-930 (1924)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

969-886 (1855)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

1294-1427 (2721)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.36

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$1.28

Record

50%

975-969 (1944)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 16 top traders (6%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.