Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Democrats win the Ohio, Iowa, and Maine Senate seats?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 44¢ · $453 held · ends Nov 3

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$453.36

Combined PnL

-$47.95

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$172.88

Total Shares380

Combined PnL+$87.24

No3 traders

Total Value$125.37

Total Shares224

Combined PnL-$135.19

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR	Yesavg 20.5¢	$65.15	$144.24	+$79.08	—
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$58.71	$57.35	-$1.4	71% 6976-2782 (9758)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$49.43	$34.07	-$15.37	74% 12150-4330 (16480)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 65¢	$530.92	$33.96	-$118.42	35% 17396-32076 (49472)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.4¢	$18.7	$22.75	+$4.05	44% 30-38 (68)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$1.11	$4.64	+$3.18	46% 1322-1534 (2856)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$0.33	$1.25	+$0.92	79% 11645-3073 (14718)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR

Yes

Invested

$65.15

Value

$144.24

PnL

+$79.08

Record

—

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$58.71

Value

$57.35

PnL

-$1.4

Record

71%

6976-2782 (9758)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$49.43

Value

$34.07

PnL

-$15.37

Record

74%

12150-4330 (16480)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$530.92

Value

$33.96

PnL

-$118.42

Record

35%

17396-32076 (49472)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.7

Value

$22.75

PnL

+$4.05

Record

44%

30-38 (68)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$4.64

PnL

+$3.18

Record

46%

1322-1534 (2856)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.92

Record

79%

11645-3073 (14718)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.5%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$119.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

219.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.