Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Democrats win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 30¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$3.7K
$17.76
30¢ → 29.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaaCTR | Noavg 29.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$23.26 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
 GollumGekko | Yesavg 69¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$29.16 | 68% 2074-958 (3032) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR | Noavg 31.4¢ | $220.75 | $195.45 | -$13.11 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 67.2¢ | $144.41 | $170.08 | +$25.67 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $14.8 | $14.1 | -$0.7 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
paddaaCTRInvested
$2,015.24
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$23.26
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
GollumGekkoInvested
$1,327.76
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$29.16
Record
68%
2074-958 (3032)
Invested
$220.75
Value
$195.45
PnL
-$13.11
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Invested
$144.41
Value
$170.08
PnL
+$25.67
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$14.1
PnL
-$0.7
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.