Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Democrats win the Michigan Governor election and Republicans win the Michigan Senate election?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 21¢ · $723 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$723.03
-$19.83
21.6¢ → 21¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 75.6¢ | $613.91 | $335.61 | +$15.8 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Yesavg 21.6¢ | $351.22 | $322.8 | -$28.41 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $49.95 | $52.2 | +$2.25 | 72% 6833-2629 (9462) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77¢ | $27.72 | $28.8 | +$1.08 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19¢ | $22.23 | $23.4 | +$1.17 | |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $13.65 | $11.4 | -$2.25 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73 | Noavg 79.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.01 | -$4.97 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
Invested
$613.91
Value
$335.61
PnL
+$15.8
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
Invested
$351.22
Value
$322.8
PnL
-$28.41
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$52.2
PnL
+$2.25
Record
72%
6833-2629 (9462)
Both legs:
Invested
$13.65
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$2.25
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$1,343.54
Value
$1.01
PnL
-$4.97
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.