Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Democrats win the Iowa Governor election and Republicans win the Iowa Senate election?
Resolved No. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
34
No 70%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$485.5
Smart Money Signal
26 of 34 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 58.3¢ | $1.4K | $739.92 | +$21.82 | 35% 17800-33165 (50965) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $354.59 | $436.01 | +$223.15 | 37% 219-366 (585) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Noavg 60.7¢ | $181.98 | $235.88 | +$53.9 | 51% 2210-2124 (4334) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 60¢ | $34.8 | $146.21 | +$5.82 | 71% 7031-2815 (9846) |
PV pvc975 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $139.97 | $140.1 | +$0.13 | 98% 14242-313 (14555) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 53.8¢ | $75.69 | $139.63 | +$64.95 | 53% 8051-7154 (15205) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100 | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $258.15 | $97 | -$121.83 | 45% 2525-3059 (5584) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.7¢ | $74.43 | $97 | +$22.57 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $165.99 | — | -$144.4 | |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $66.39 | $81.95 | +$15.56 | 60% 11576-7759 (19335) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $18.72 | — | -$18.72 | 48% 6965-7593 (14558) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.3¢ | $53.15 | — | -$53.15 | 53% 28804-25713 (54517) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.3¢ | $3.87 | — | -$3.87 | 42% 5278-7215 (12493) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $32.76 | — | +$30.2 | 73% 13591-5101 (18692) |
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | — | — | +$5.67 | 49% 5883-6184 (12067) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 55¢ | $146.99 | — | +$73.35 | 79% 12088-3268 (15356) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $44.44 | — | +$22.64 | 73% 12650-4633 (17283) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 47% 2081-2362 (4443) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 42% 3687-5095 (8782) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 15706-12366 (28072) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | — | — | +$0 | 17% 1105-5456 (6561) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $21.56 | — | +$11.96 | 39% 5418-8450 (13868) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 57.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 15726-10029 (25755) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 22161-19289 (41450) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 63.6¢ | $1 | — | +$1.3 | 62% 14630-9158 (23788) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | — | — | +$17.42 | 51% 3540-3430 (6970) |
SP SpringlyFawl | Noavg 55¢ | $125.4 | — | -$5.49 | 29% 2333-5711 (8044) |
Invested
$1,390.19
Value
$739.92
PnL
+$21.82
Record
35%
17800-33165 (50965)
Invested
$354.59
Value
$436.01
PnL
+$223.15
Record
37%
219-366 (585)
Invested
$181.98
Value
$235.88
PnL
+$53.9
Record
51%
2210-2124 (4334)
Invested
$34.8
Value
$146.21
PnL
+$5.82
Record
71%
7031-2815 (9846)
Invested
$139.97
Value
$140.1
PnL
+$0.13
Record
98%
14242-313 (14555)
Invested
$75.69
Value
$139.63
PnL
+$64.95
Record
53%
8051-7154 (15205)
Invested
$258.15
Value
$97
PnL
-$121.83
Record
45%
2525-3059 (5584)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.39
Value
$81.95
PnL
+$15.56
Record
60%
11576-7759 (19335)
Invested
$18.72
Value
—
PnL
-$18.72
Record
48%
6965-7593 (14558)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$53.15
Value
—
PnL
-$53.15
Record
53%
28804-25713 (54517)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$3.87
Value
—
PnL
-$3.87
Record
42%
5278-7215 (12493)
Invested
$32.76
Value
—
PnL
+$30.2
Record
73%
13591-5101 (18692)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$5.67
Record
49%
5883-6184 (12067)
LucerysInvested
$146.99
Value
—
PnL
+$73.35
Record
79%
12088-3268 (15356)
Invested
$44.44
Value
—
PnL
+$22.64
Record
73%
12650-4633 (17283)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2081-2362 (4443)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
3687-5095 (8782)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
15706-12366 (28072)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
1105-5456 (6561)
Invested
$21.56
Value
—
PnL
+$11.96
Record
39%
5418-8450 (13868)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
15726-10029 (25755)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
22161-19289 (41450)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
+$1.3
Record
62%
14630-9158 (23788)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$17.42
Record
51%
3540-3430 (6970)
Invested
$125.4
Value
—
PnL
-$5.49
Record
29%
2333-5711 (8044)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
xtxpleasecallme
No — $739.92
0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73
No — $436.01
peepeepooppoop
No — $235.88
AnonymousUsername
No — $146.21
pvc975
No — $140.1
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed
No — $139.63
0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938
ARBArbitrage — excluded
qwen300.fund
No — $81.95
Gaditima
CTRYes — $0
balthazar
CTRYes — $0