Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$374.56

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 61.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,997

Combined PnL+$346.64

Yes3 traders

Total Value$762.25

Total Shares2,000

Combined PnL+$27.92

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 55.6¢	$957.84	$750.99	+$341.57	45% 2406-2976 (5382)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 38.9¢	$419.14	$409.39	+$6.42	27% 6631-18348 (24979)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$968.27	$372.21	+$34.42	35% 17512-32753 (50265)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.3¢	$229.34	$255.19	-$0.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.1¢	$126.63	$117.02	+$35.09
macrosteaks	Noavg 61¢	$206.51	$249.69	+$12.86	55% 3434-2832 (6266)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 63¢	$231.83	$223.65	-$8.18	50% 1695-1680 (3375)
ifyoulovemeCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$200	$179.07	-$20.93	52% 277-254 (531)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 32.8¢	$145.5	$173.79	+$42.44	56% 984-783 (1767)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 55¢	$3.29	$3.68	+$0.39	53% 7830-6946 (14776)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$957.84

Value

$750.99

PnL

+$341.57

Record

45%

2406-2976 (5382)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$419.14

Value

$409.39

PnL

+$6.42

Record

27%

6631-18348 (24979)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$968.27

Value

$372.21

PnL

+$34.42

Record

35%

17512-32753 (50265)

Both legs:

No$229.3455.3¢-$0.67

Yes$126.6341.1¢+$35.09

macrosteaks

Invested

$206.51

Value

$249.69

PnL

+$12.86

Record

55%

3434-2832 (6266)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$231.83

Value

$223.65

PnL

-$8.18

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

ifyoulovemeCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$179.07

PnL

-$20.93

Record

52%

277-254 (531)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.5

Value

$173.79

PnL

+$42.44

Record

56%

984-783 (1767)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$3.29

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

7830-6946 (14776)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.4%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.