Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

32¢ → 98.8¢

+208% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,949

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No3 traders

Total Value$3.14

Total Shares461

Combined PnL-$268.91

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

780h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ifyouloveme	Yesavg 49.3¢	$44.83	$591.96	+$394.97	55% 342-284 (626)
RA RadioCCOD	Yesavg 22.7¢	$135.27	$571.76	+$445.26	32% 81-170 (251)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 26¢	$119.92	$455.16	+$335.24	65% 284-150 (434)
RememberAmalek	Yesavg 22¢	$40.57	$177.2	+$138.57	55% 1035-864 (1899)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 26.7¢	$22.18	$79.76	+$59	26% 7302-21086 (28388)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.3	$4.81	+$3.51	77% 12686-3871 (16557)
SI SitsToPee<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.55	$4.81	+$3.31	53% 790-695 (1485)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$68.89	$1.49	-$67.41	53% 23528-20740 (44268)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 62.4¢	$512.49	$1.24	-$199.69	34% 19186-36821 (56007)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 42.5¢	$99.94	$0.42	-$1.82	45% 2965-3664 (6629)

ifyouloveme

Yes

Invested

$44.83

Value

$591.96

PnL

+$394.97

Record

55%

342-284 (626)

RadioCCOD

Yes

Invested

$135.27

Value

$571.76

PnL

+$445.26

Record

32%

81-170 (251)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$119.92

Value

$455.16

PnL

+$335.24

Record

65%

284-150 (434)

RememberAmalek

Yes

Invested

$40.57

Value

$177.2

PnL

+$138.57

Record

55%

1035-864 (1899)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.18

Value

$79.76

PnL

+$59

Record

26%

7302-21086 (28388)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$4.81

PnL

+$3.51

Record

77%

12686-3871 (16557)

SitsToPee<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$4.81

PnL

+$3.31

Record

53%

790-695 (1485)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$68.89

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$67.41

Record

53%

23528-20740 (44268)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$512.49

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$199.69

Record

34%

19186-36821 (56007)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$99.94

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$1.82

Record

45%

2965-3664 (6629)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

780h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.