Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 15¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes15¢No85¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$54.89

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 15¢

-76% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,586

Combined PnL+$10.47

No4 traders

Total Value$57.05

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$44.42

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

456h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 70.4¢	$823.74	$803.62	-$12.33	14% 461-2750 (3211)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 38.3¢	$363.85	$341.44	+$213.55	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Noavg 65.3¢	$97.84	$121.53	+$82.16	45% 2819-3389 (6208)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.4¢	$23.03	$70.13	+$64.43
└ No leg	Noavg 65.3¢	$45.04	$51.41	+$17.74
2B9S<$100	Noavg 24¢	$6.48	$25.11	+$18.63	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 19¢	$3.8	$18.6	+$14.8	33% 454-938 (1392)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 72.5¢	$215.16	$12.64	-$137.78	48% 1884-2013 (3897)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 17¢	$1.7	$9.3	+$7.6	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
ifyoulovemeCTR<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$59.52	$7.14	-$52.38	55% 326-271 (597)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.65	$4.04	+$3.39	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.7¢	$14.84	$3.6	+$5.7	56% 452-353 (805)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$6.81	$0.52	-$6.29	77% 12289-3775 (16064)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$823.74

Value

$803.62

PnL

-$12.33

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$363.85

Value

$341.44

PnL

+$213.55

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Invested

$97.84

Value

$121.53

PnL

+$82.16

Record

45%

2819-3389 (6208)

Both legs:

Yes$23.038.4¢+$64.43

No$45.0465.3¢+$17.74

2B9S<$100

Invested

$6.48

Value

$25.11

PnL

+$18.63

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

akroll<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$14.8

Record

33%

454-938 (1392)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$215.16

Value

$12.64

PnL

-$137.78

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$7.6

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

ifyoulovemeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.52

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$52.38

Record

55%

326-271 (597)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$0.65

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$3.39

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.84

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$5.7

Record

56%

452-353 (805)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.81

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$6.29

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

456h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.5%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$504.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

604.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.