Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $161 held · ends Dec 1

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$160.57

Combined PnL

-$6.9

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 98.7¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$156.93

Total Shares159

Combined PnL-$1.77

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.64

Total Shares280

Combined PnL-$5.13

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99¢	$103.95	$103.64	-$0.31	29% 892-2174 (3066)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.61	-$0.27	26% 870-2505 (3375)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.8	$19.74	-$0.06	53% 6070-5437 (11507)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$33.87	$3.95	-$1.13	27% 948-2550 (3498)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.37	$1.78	+$0.41	— 0-1 (1)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$3.59	$1.17	-$2.43	40% 3240-4885 (8125)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$49.67	$0.43	-$2.57	47% 4815-5470 (10285)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.8	$0.26	-$0.54	3% 2-63 (65)

mildwindow27

Invested

$103.95

Value

$103.64

PnL

-$0.31

Record

29%

892-2174 (3066)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.61

PnL

-$0.27

Record

26%

870-2505 (3375)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$19.74

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

6070-5437 (11507)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$33.87

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$1.13

Record

27%

948-2550 (3498)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.41

Record

—

0-1 (1)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.59

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$2.43

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.67

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$2.57

Record

47%

4815-5470 (10285)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.54

Record

2-63 (65)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.