Will DeepSeek be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $102 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$102.16

Combined PnL

-$1.18

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$101.93

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$0.45

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares154

Combined PnL-$0.73

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$33.07	$32.96	-$0.11	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.96	-$0.01	34% 263-518 (781)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$19	-$0.31	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.96	$10.95	-$0.01	33% 220-451 (671)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.06	$9.06	-$0	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.12	$0.19	+$0.06	— 0-1 (1)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.31	$0.02	-$0.3	12% 20-144 (164)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.27	$0.01	-$0.25	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.26	$0.01	-$0.24	16% 22-118 (140)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$33.07

Value

$32.96

PnL

-$0.11

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$19

PnL

-$0.31

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$10.96

Value

$10.95

PnL

-$0.01

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$9.06

Value

$9.06

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.06

Record

—

0-1 (1)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.3

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.25

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.24

Record

16%

22-118 (140)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.