Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 22 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Curtis Priem be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

22 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $9 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$9.48

Combined PnL

-$171.34

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 0.1¢

-95% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 22 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes22 traders

Total Value$9.48

Total Shares18,963

Combined PnL-$171.34

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 31%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 31% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Rex416CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$28.04	$1.5	-$26.54	52% 22-20 (42)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$108.2	$1.47	-$26.73	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$25.2	$1.28	-$23.63	52% 1637-1538 (3175)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$22.52	$1.21	-$21.32	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$18.69	$1	-$17.69	37% 637-1099 (1736)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$12.98	$0.69	-$12.29	41% 28-40 (68)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.97	$0.53	-$9.44	— 5-0 (5)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.35	$0.5	-$8.85	0% 0-70 (70)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$5.7	$0.3	-$5.39	47% 16-18 (34)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$5.04	$0.22	-$3.82	31% 146-327 (473)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$3.65	$0.13	-$3.26	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
GD gdime27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.34	$0.13	-$2.21	1% 1-98 (99)
FL FlobodanCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.34	$0.13	-$2.21	— 2-5 (7)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.53	$0.08	-$1.45	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$3.71	$0.08	-$2.4	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.09	$0.06	-$1.03	18% 853-3894 (4747)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.98	$0.05	-$0.93	58% 699-503 (1202)
GE gesstCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.93	$0.05	-$0.88	—
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$0.04	-$0.71	— 10-1 (11)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.28	$0.02	-$0.26	13% 76-495 (571)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.25	$0.01	-$0.23	5% 7-122 (129)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$0	-$0.06	27% 667-1774 (2441)