Will Christine Lagarde win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $425 held · ends Apr 18, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Apr 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$425.49

Combined PnL

$13.28

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 97.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$388.58

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$2.05

Yes3 traders

Total Value$36.9

Total Shares820

Combined PnL+$15.32

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer	Noavg 96.2¢	$174.77	$173.49	-$1.27	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 95.3¢	$119.06	$119.38	+$0.31	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$38.49	$38.21	-$0.28	23% 7-23 (30)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$29.43	$28.65	-$0.78	34% 263-521 (784)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$12.1	$23.41	+$11.31	39% 3605-5672 (9277)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$19.25	$19.11	-$0.14	— 10-1 (11)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$9.63	$9.75	+$0.12	29% 232-564 (796)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$31.77	$8.99	+$4.21	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$4.7	$4.5	-$0.2	— 0-11 (11)

northdrawer

Invested

$174.77

Value

$173.49

PnL

-$1.27

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

haveagoodday

Invested

$119.06

Value

$119.38

PnL

+$0.31

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$38.49

Value

$38.21

PnL

-$0.28

Record

23%

7-23 (30)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.43

Value

$28.65

PnL

-$0.78

Record

34%

263-521 (784)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.1

Value

$23.41

PnL

+$11.31

Record

39%

3605-5672 (9277)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$19.25

Value

$19.11

PnL

-$0.14

Record

—

10-1 (11)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.63

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0.12

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.77

Value

$8.99

PnL

+$4.21

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.2

Record

—

0-11 (11)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.