Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 19 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Charlie Kawwas be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

19 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $747 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$746.96

Combined PnL

$596.83

Smart Money Entry

1.1¢ → 4.5¢

+317% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

19 of 19 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes19 traders

Total Value$746.96

Total Shares18,564

Combined PnL+$596.83

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 32%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 32% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$28.28	$121.03	+$92.75	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
Rex416CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$28.04	$119.99	+$91.96	53% 29-26 (55)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$22.52	$96.4	+$73.88	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$25.2	$86.43	+$87.99	51% 1657-1609 (3266)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$18.69	$80	+$61.31	37% 637-1099 (1736)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$12.98	$55.56	+$42.58	36% 33-59 (92)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.97	$42.69	+$32.72	— 5-0 (5)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.35	$40	+$30.65	0% 0-70 (70)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$35.08	$39.47	+$4.39	— 13-4 (17)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$5.7	$24.39	+$18.69	47% 27-30 (57)
GD gdime27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.34	$10	+$7.66	1% 1-98 (99)
FL FlobodanCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.34	$10	+$7.66	— 9-7 (16)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.09	$4.66	+$3.57	17% 858-4055 (4913)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.98	$4.2	+$3.22	58% 864-619 (1483)
GE gesstCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.93	$4	+$3.07	—
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$7.38	$3.55	+$31.22	29% 308-740 (1048)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$3.2	+$2.45	— 16-2 (18)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.26	$1.1	+$0.84	14% 103-624 (727)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$0.28	+$0.21	24% 788-2560 (3348)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$28.28

Value

$121.03

PnL

+$92.75

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

Rex416CTR

Yes

Invested

$28.04

Value

$119.99

PnL

+$91.96

Record

53%

29-26 (55)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.52

Value

$96.4

PnL

+$73.88

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.2

Value

$86.43

PnL

+$87.99

Record

51%

1657-1609 (3266)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.69

Value

$80

PnL

+$61.31

Record

37%

637-1099 (1736)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.98

Value

$55.56

PnL

+$42.58

Record

36%

33-59 (92)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.97

Value

$42.69

PnL

+$32.72

Record

—

5-0 (5)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.35

Value

$40

PnL

+$30.65

Record

0-70 (70)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.08

Value

$39.47

PnL

+$4.39

Record

—

13-4 (17)

guilttripCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.7

Value

$24.39

PnL

+$18.69

Record

47%

27-30 (57)

gdime27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$10

PnL

+$7.66

Record

1-98 (99)

FlobodanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$10

PnL

+$7.66

Record

—

9-7 (16)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$4.66

PnL

+$3.57

Record

17%

858-4055 (4913)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$3.22

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

gesstCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

PnL

+$3.07

Record

—

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.38

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$31.22

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$2.45

Record

—

16-2 (18)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.84

Record

14%

103-624 (727)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.21

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

19 of 19 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 32%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 32% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.7%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1651.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

1752.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.