Will Candidate N be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 96¢ · $62K held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$61.7K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 95.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$59.5K

Total Shares62,953

Combined PnL+$520.13

Yes11 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares29,333

Combined PnL+$910.82

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR DrSlips	Noavg 93.5¢	$30.7K	$31.0K	+$322.52	—
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 93.3¢	$10.4K	$10.4K	+$24.73	— 3-5 (8)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 95¢	$7.4K	$7.4K	+$38.88	72% 1113-423 (1536)
TY Tyatsmr	Noavg 94¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$25	—
TBill1	Noavg 92.8¢	$3.6K	$3.8K	+$108.04	1% 1-106 (107)
pIebeCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$83.69	— 3-5 (8)
GrokEnjoyer	Noavg 95¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$5.56	0% 0-29 (29)
Optimus-	Noavg 95¢	$950	$950	+$0	— 0-7 (7)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.97	$533.62	+$523.64	— 1-0 (1)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$4.69	$251	+$246.31	48% 20-22 (42)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 93¢	$186.43	$189.97	+$3.55	40% 3254-4905 (8159)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.98	$52.5	+$51.52	58% 482-347 (829)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.85	$45.45	+$44.6	19% 816-3585 (4401)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$40	+$39.25	— 9-0 (9)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$40	+$39.25	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.72	$38.59	+$37.87	37% 3468-5986 (9454)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 96¢	$44.34	$34.81	+$52.96	52% 1614-1486 (3100)
GD gdime27CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$18.99	$26.24	+$7.25	0% 0-98 (98)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$3.5	+$3.43	34% 528-1025 (1553)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.03	$1.41	+$1.38	25% 1250-3715 (4965)

DrSlips

Invested

$30,706.5

Value

$31.0K

PnL

+$322.52

Record

—

Kevindoto

Invested

$10,358.58

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$24.73

Record

—

3-5 (8)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$7,388.15

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$38.88

Record

72%

1113-423 (1536)

Tyatsmr

Invested

$4,699.99

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$25

Record

—

TBill1

Invested

$3,644.4

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$108.04

Record

1-106 (107)

pIebeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,461.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$83.69

Record

—

3-5 (8)

GrokEnjoyer

Invested

$1,055.45

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$5.56

Record

0-29 (29)

Optimus-

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0-7 (7)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR

Yes

Invested

$9.97

Value

$533.62

PnL

+$523.64

Record

—

1-0 (1)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$4.69

Value

$251

PnL

+$246.31

Record

48%

20-22 (42)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$186.43

Value

$189.97

PnL

+$3.55

Record

40%

3254-4905 (8159)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$51.52

Record

58%

482-347 (829)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$45.45

PnL

+$44.6

Record

19%

816-3585 (4401)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$40

PnL

+$39.25

Record

—

9-0 (9)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$40

PnL

+$39.25

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$38.59

PnL

+$37.87

Record

37%

3468-5986 (9454)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$44.34

Value

$34.81

PnL

+$52.96

Record

52%

1614-1486 (3100)

gdime27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.99

Value

$26.24

PnL

+$7.25

Record

0-98 (98)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$3.43

Record

34%

528-1025 (1553)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$1.38

Record

25%

1250-3715 (4965)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.