Will Candidate L be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$363.02

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 97.7¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$543.96

Total Shares1,088

Combined PnL+$560.01

No4 traders

Total Value$511.18

Total Shares826

Combined PnL-$196.99

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
B7 0xb7de...b802CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.55	$350.21	+$343.66	—
Haradwaith	Noavg 99.3¢	$496.5	$250	-$246.5	55% 56-46 (102)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 50¢	$102.09	$156.39	+$54.31	41% 3187-4522 (7709)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.47	$92.2	+$91.73	13% 29-188 (217)
0X 0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92<$100	Noavg 91¢	$81.88	$87.89	+$6.02	—
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.18	$63	+$61.82	45% 13-16 (29)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.85	$18	+$44.6	20% 782-3094 (3876)
17 0x17b8...d5d1<$100	Noavg 82¢	$27.7	$16.89	-$10.81	7% 10-129 (139)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$3.18	$15.01	+$11.91	42% 13-18 (31)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$3.5	+$3.43	79% 502-133 (635)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.45	$2.05	+$2.84	53% 1614-1416 (3030)

0xb7de...b802CTR

Yes

Invested

$6.55

Value

$350.21

PnL

+$343.66

Record

—

Haradwaith

Invested

$496.5

Value

$250

PnL

-$246.5

Record

55%

56-46 (102)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$102.09

Value

$156.39

PnL

+$54.31

Record

41%

3187-4522 (7709)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$92.2

PnL

+$91.73

Record

13%

29-188 (217)

0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92<$100

Invested

$81.88

Value

$87.89

PnL

+$6.02

Record

—

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$63

PnL

+$61.82

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$18

PnL

+$44.6

Record

20%

782-3094 (3876)

0x17b8...d5d1<$100

Invested

$27.7

Value

$16.89

PnL

-$10.81

Record

10-129 (139)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$15.01

PnL

+$11.91

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$3.43

Record

79%

502-133 (635)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$2.84

Record

53%

1614-1416 (3030)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.