Consensus PnL -$964 · win rate 100% (2–0, n=2) · was PM monthly #953 · holds 73 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
-$964.3
Record
2W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 2 settled
Batting Avg
50.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#133
Source
PM monthly #953
Record (90 d)
2/2 · 100%
Trades
2,338
Markets
177
Volume
$39.2K
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Top consensus positions
73 in listed consensus markets · 30 of 73 on the consensus side (41%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $12K · now 93¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (56% of 16)
- Will Xun win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?No $1.4K · now 92¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes $1.4K · now 32¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes $1.3K · now 23¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?No $1.2K · now 93¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 82¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (33% of 15)
- Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Yes $1.1K · now 73¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes $968 · now 63¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (43% of 14)
Specialties
10 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 53¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where TheWindKnowsmyName's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 30%(won 33% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.