Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will ByteDance be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $104 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$104.22

Combined PnL

-$1.91

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$103.72

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$0.21

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.5

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$1.7

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$40.93	$40.87	-$0.06	34% 263-518 (781)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$33.04	$32.93	-$0.11	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.93	-$0.04	34% 231-458 (689)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.11	$0.28	+$0.17	— 0-1 (1)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$11.08	$0.14	-$0.29	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.31	$0.03	-$0.28	12% 20-144 (164)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.27	$0.02	-$0.24	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.26	$0.02	-$0.24	16% 22-118 (140)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$29.96	$0	-$0.82	28% 1014-2623 (3637)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$40.93

Value

$40.87

PnL

-$0.06

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$33.04

Value

$32.93

PnL

-$0.11

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.93

PnL

-$0.04

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.17

Record

—

0-1 (1)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.08

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.29

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.28

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.24

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.24

Record

16%

22-118 (140)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.96

Value

PnL

-$0.82

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.