Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 86¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$13.5K
$1.5K
72.7¢ → 85.5¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 73.8¢ | $9.0K | $10.0K | +$1.1K | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
 justdance | Noavg 65.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.7K | +$399.63 | 52% 2726-2553 (5279) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 22.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$14.77 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $260.61 | $244.13 | -$16.48 | 59% 2239-1571 (3810) |
PH PhongLeXBT<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $37.8 | $39.96 | +$2.16 | 49% 274-288 (562) |
Invested
$8,960.99
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
justdanceInvested
$1,251.5
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$399.63
Record
52%
2726-2553 (5279)
Invested
$1,558.99
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$14.77
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
Invested
$260.61
Value
$244.13
PnL
-$16.48
Record
59%
2239-1571 (3810)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$2.16
Record
49%
274-288 (562)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.