Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on October 30?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$21.1K
$3.6K
81.5¢ → 98.3¢
+21% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $7.6K | $8.6K | +$1.0K | 65% 2415-1283 (3698) |
 justdance | Noavg 69.8¢ | $5.3K | $7.5K | +$2.1K | 52% 2707-2541 (5248) |
19 196874353278 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $4.3K | $4.4K | +$141.94 | 43% 174-231 (405) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 58.8¢ | $557.1 | $567.36 | +$311.78 | 59% 2201-1553 (3754) |
RI Rin2x | Noavg 96¢ | $100 | $97.95 | +$1.95 | 86% 2120-335 (2455) |
Invested
$7,551.5
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
65%
2415-1283 (3698)
justdanceInvested
$5,341.44
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
52%
2707-2541 (5248)
Invested
$4,250.64
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$141.94
Record
43%
174-231 (405)
Invested
$557.1
Value
$567.36
PnL
+$311.78
Record
59%
2201-1553 (3754)
Invested
$100
Value
$97.95
PnL
+$1.95
Record
86%
2120-335 (2455)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.