Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on October 31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$19.1K
$474.97
94.8¢ → 96.6¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $11.5K | $12.0K | +$437.52 | 65% 2423-1286 (3709) |
19 196874353278 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $5.0K | $4.3K | +$36.67 | 43% 181-238 (419) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 97.4¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$2.5 | 63% 782-461 (1243) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97¢ | $309.58 | $307.59 | -$1.99 | 59% 2205-1559 (3764) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $43.79 | $44.06 | +$0.27 | 86% 2131-337 (2468) |
Invested
$11,507.36
Value
$12.0K
PnL
+$437.52
Record
65%
2423-1286 (3709)
Invested
$4,970.56
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$36.67
Record
43%
181-238 (419)
Invested
$2,435
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$2.5
Record
63%
782-461 (1243)
Invested
$309.58
Value
$307.59
PnL
-$1.99
Record
59%
2205-1559 (3764)
Invested
$43.79
Value
$44.06
PnL
+$0.27
Record
86%
2131-337 (2468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.