Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the second mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 61¢ · $270 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$270.18

Combined PnL

-$11.07

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$166.88

Total Shares394

Combined PnL-$39.13

No4 traders

Total Value$103.31

Total Shares164

Combined PnL+$28.07

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

77h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 51¢	$104.01	$84.53	-$19.48	41% 3118-4481 (7599)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$92	$74	-$18	45% 132-162 (294)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 49¢	$32.67	$42.01	+$9.34	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 44.6¢	$22.3	$31.5	+$9.2	29% 882-2138 (3020)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 41¢	$16.4	$25.2	+$8.8	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 49.3¢	$10.01	$8.35	-$1.66	54% 562-474 (1036)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 53¢	$3.87	$4.6	+$0.73	17% 66-330 (396)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.01

Value

$84.53

PnL

-$19.48

Record

41%

3118-4481 (7599)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92

Value

$74

PnL

-$18

Record

45%

132-162 (294)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$32.67

Value

$42.01

PnL

+$9.34

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$22.3

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$9.2

Record

29%

882-2138 (3020)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$25.2

PnL

+$8.8

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.01

Value

$8.35

PnL

-$1.66

Record

54%

562-474 (1036)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$3.87

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.73

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

77h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.0%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$61.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

161.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.