Will Ben Ferguson be the next White House Press Secretary?

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 17%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$71.46

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 84.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$444.45

Total Shares517

Combined PnL+$21.9

Yes10 traders

Total Value$581.33

Total Shares3,837

Combined PnL+$49.57

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 80.3¢	$300.55	$272.45	+$21.9	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
0X 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$120	$180	+$60	0% 0-34 (34)
GU guilttripCTR	Yesavg 13.5¢	$156.82	$179.42	+$22.6	57% 13-10 (23)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 86¢	$172	$172	+$0	48% 1236-1320 (2556)
DirkDiggler67CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$80.55	$92.94	+$12.39	59% 276-192 (468)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 22.3¢	$122.5	$82.5	-$40	— 3-2 (5)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$14.54	$16.2	+$1.66	65% 4263-2287 (6550)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$23.14	$10.5	-$6	40% 10-15 (25)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$114.25	$7.66	-$1.75	13% 13-84 (97)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.9¢	$5.43	$4.81	-$0.62	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$2.18	$4.08	+$1.9	41% 27-39 (66)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$3.85	$3.23	-$0.62	72% 36-14 (50)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$300.55

Value

$272.45

PnL

+$21.9

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557CTR

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$180

PnL

+$60

Record

0-34 (34)

guilttripCTR

Yes

Invested

$156.82

Value

$179.42

PnL

+$22.6

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$172

Value

$172

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1236-1320 (2556)

DirkDiggler67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.55

Value

$92.94

PnL

+$12.39

Record

59%

276-192 (468)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$122.5

Value

$82.5

PnL

-$40

Record

—

3-2 (5)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.54

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$1.66

Record

65%

4263-2287 (6550)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.14

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$6

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

SulkingCryptoCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.25

Value

$7.66

PnL

-$1.75

Record

13%

13-84 (97)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.43

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.62

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.18

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$1.9

Record

41%

27-39 (66)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.62

Record

72%

36-14 (50)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.0%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.