Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 82¢ · $438 held · ends Dec 21
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$438.2
$9.73
85.3¢ → 82.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 85.4¢ | $186.82 | $180.3 | -$6.51 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 85.2¢ | $170.4 | $151.62 | -$5.15 | — 8-8 (16) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Noavg 13.5¢ | $69.49 | $90.49 | +$20.99 | 4% 2-51 (53) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $13.51 | $13.43 | -$0.08 | — 1-9 (10) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $1.88 | $2.36 | +$0.48 | 47% 66-74 (140) |
Invested
$186.82
Value
$180.3
PnL
-$6.51
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
HaradwaithInvested
$170.4
Value
$151.62
PnL
-$5.15
Record
—
8-8 (16)
Invested
$69.49
Value
$90.49
PnL
+$20.99
Record
4%
2-51 (53)
Invested
$13.51
Value
$13.43
PnL
-$0.08
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Invested
$1.88
Value
$2.36
PnL
+$0.48
Record
47%
66-74 (140)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.