Will Anthropic have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 86¢ · $583 held · ends Dec 16

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$582.73

Combined PnL

-$16.45

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 86¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$533.2

Total Shares620

Combined PnL-$10.33

Yes5 traders

Total Value$49.53

Total Shares450

Combined PnL-$6.12

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 88¢	$422.4	$412.8	-$9.6	30% 108-251 (359)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 87.7¢	$105.2	$103.2	-$2	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$58.77	$37.18	-$21.59	— 0-1 (1)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 87¢	$8.7	$8.6	-$0.1	29% 185-443 (628)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 89¢	$57	$8.6	+$1.37	8% 9-109 (118)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 19.6¢	$196.63	$6.37	+$3.51	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$3.85	+$2.85	— 10-4 (14)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$15.27	$1.98	-$4.29	18% 838-3799 (4637)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$139.66	$0.15	+$13.4	45% 4955-6107 (11062)

Haradwaith

Invested

$422.4

Value

$412.8

PnL

-$9.6

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

cigarettes

Invested

$105.2

Value

$103.2

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.77

Value

$37.18

PnL

-$21.59

Record

—

0-1 (1)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$0.1

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$57

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$1.37

Record

9-109 (118)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.63

Value

$6.37

PnL

+$3.51

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$2.85

Record

—

10-4 (14)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.27

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$4.29

Record

18%

838-3799 (4637)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.66

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$13.4

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.5%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.