Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Israel?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 43¢ · $573 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$573.05
$359.81
53.5¢ → 42.5¢
-21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
135h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 49.9¢ | $339.68 | $187.87 | +$150.19 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $126 | $137.77 | +$194.88 | 46% 132-152 (284) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Noavg 79¢ | $220.55 | $116.13 | -$4.42 | 19% 2981-12794 (15775) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.1¢ | $86.11 | $90 | +$3.89 | 65% 629-345 (974) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.9¢ | $15.36 | $35.44 | +$2.17 | 53% 8890-8041 (16931) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $1.41 | $5.84 | +$13.1 | 63% 33619-19478 (53097) |
Invested
$339.68
Value
$187.87
PnL
+$150.19
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
$126
Value
$137.77
PnL
+$194.88
Record
46%
132-152 (284)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$220.55
Value
$116.13
PnL
-$4.42
Record
19%
2981-12794 (15775)
Invested
$86.11
Value
$90
PnL
+$3.89
Record
65%
629-345 (974)
Invested
$15.36
Value
$35.44
PnL
+$2.17
Record
53%
8890-8041 (16931)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$5.84
PnL
+$13.1
Record
63%
33619-19478 (53097)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.