Will Alibaba have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $251 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$250.65

Combined PnL

-$23.8

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 99.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$249.78

Total Shares250

Combined PnL+$1.13

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.87

Total Shares579

Combined PnL-$24.92

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1	Noavg 97¢	$155.64	$140.01	+$4.33	— 0-1 (1)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$79.18	$79.92	+$0.74	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 99.9¢	$174.83	$29.85	-$3.94	41% 1573-2277 (3850)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$31.43	$0.64	-$11.78	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$104.28	$0.09	-$4.22	45% 4975-6198 (11173)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.05	-$0.95	— 10-4 (14)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.38	$0.03	-$0.35	31% 114-255 (369)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$20.07	$0.03	-$0.84	8% 9-110 (119)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$15.81	$0.03	-$6.79	18% 838-3822 (4660)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1

Invested

$155.64

Value

$140.01

PnL

+$4.33

Record

—

0-1 (1)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.18

Value

$79.92

PnL

+$0.74

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

haveagoodday

Invested

$174.83

Value

$29.85

PnL

-$3.94

Record

41%

1573-2277 (3850)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.43

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$11.78

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.28

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$4.22

Record

45%

4975-6198 (11173)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.95

Record

—

10-4 (14)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.35

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.07

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.84

Record

9-110 (119)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.81

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.79

Record

18%

838-3822 (4660)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.