Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 5.5¢ · $5 held · ends Dec 1

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$5.29

Combined PnL

-$19.22

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.29

Total Shares96

Combined PnL-$19.22

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$1.71	$3.04	+$1.33	— 0-1 (1)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$38.11	$1.25	-$16.86	40% 3217-4824 (8041)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$8.69	$0.5	-$3.69	19% 814-3563 (4377)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$0.5	$0.5	+$0	38% 58-96 (154)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$1.33

Record

—

0-1 (1)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.11

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$16.86

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.69

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$3.69

Record

19%

814-3563 (4377)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

58-96 (154)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.7%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1383.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1483.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.