Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 69¢ · $285 held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$285.42

Combined PnL

$34.4

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$59.25

Total Shares191

Combined PnL+$37.41

No2 traders

Total Value$63.42

Total Shares74

Combined PnL-$3.01

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
35 35066FE58feARB<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$218.74	$162.75	+$42.21	42% 641-882 (1523)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.2¢	$70.09	$86.18	+$39.41
└ No leg	Noavg 66.5¢	$73.77	$76.57	+$2.8
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.3¢	$96.54	$59.25	+$37.41	35% 17053-31562 (48615)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$41.03	$40.13	-$0.8	16% 407-2093 (2500)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 75¢	$25.5	$23.29	-$2.21	25% 1598-4746 (6344)

35066FE58feARB<$100

Invested

$218.74

Value

$162.75

PnL

+$42.21

Record

42%

641-882 (1523)

Both legs:

Yes$70.0925.2¢+$39.41

No$73.7766.5¢+$2.8

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.54

Value

$59.25

PnL

+$37.41

Record

35%

17053-31562 (48615)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$41.03

Value

$40.13

PnL

-$0.8

Record

16%

407-2093 (2500)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$25.5

Value

$23.29

PnL

-$2.21

Record

25%

1598-4746 (6344)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.8%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.